Indicators · Regime · BEAR / TURN / BULL with a slow protective trail
Regime Signal
Regime Signal sorts each daily chart into BEAR, TURN or BULL and holds a long while the regime is TURN or BULL. It exits only after three closes below a slow protective trail.
What it is
It uses three lines built from the bar midpoint (high + low) / 2: a 20-bar smoothed average (the center), an adaptive line that speeds up in clean trends and slows down in chop, plus a 14-bar ATR on top of it (the upper line), and a 200-bar smoothed average minus two ATRs (the protective trail). The regime is separate from position size, and the run is a custom long-or-cash simulation, not TradingView’s Strategy Tester. Decisions use confirmed closes and fill at the next open.
Inputs and defaults
| Input | Default | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Early TURN entry | On | Allows a full-size entry when price reclaims the center line |
| TURN exposure | 100% | Size of a TURN entry; a smaller value tops up on BULL |
| Protective closes | 3 | Closes below the trail needed to exit |
| BULL channel line | Adaptive | Efficiency ratio 20, fast 20, slow 200 (or the 1.0 SMMA20 line) |
| Drawdown guard | Off | Optional trim to 50% at an 8% book drawdown and full cash at 15% |
| Start / costs | Jan 1, 2021 · 5 bps + 5 bps | Simulation start, commission and slippage per side |
Signals and rules
- BULL: a close above the upper line (adaptive line + 1 ATR) while price is above the trail. It buys to full size.
- TURN: from BEAR, a close that crosses back above the 20-bar center while above the trail. It buys (full size by default).
- BEAR (exit): three consecutive closes below the protective trail (200-bar average − 2 ATR). The whole position is sold.
- Once BULL, the regime stays BULL until that exit fires; ordinary pullbacks do not end it.
- Optional guard (off by default): trims to 50% at an 8% drawdown from the book’s peak and goes to cash at 15%. It restores full size after two later closes above a rising upper line.
Reading the chart
- Columns show the close’s distance from the base line in ATRs: green in BULL, aqua in TURN, orange in BEAR.
- A lime line at +1 marks the BULL entry level, an aqua line shows the TURN center, and a red line shows the protective trail.
- Dots along the bottom count closes below the trail; they turn red one close before an exit.
- Green triangles are buys, red triangles are exits and orange triangles are guard trims.
Where it appears on MystTrades
Regime Signal is not computed on the site yet. The ShadowBook board uses its own regime read; this page explains the standalone indicator.
Tested results and limits
No Regime Signal chart table is published here. It is late at turns by design: it waits for a reclaim to enter and three closes below a slow trail to exit, so it gives back part of a move before it sells. The guard is a close-based trigger, not a loss cap, so gaps can produce bigger drawdowns.
Alerts
In TradingView open the alert dialog, set Condition to RegimeSignal H, pick the event you want from the list, and choose Once per bar close. Events are decided on the confirmed close; where an order is involved it fills at the next open.
- RegimeSignal BUY setup: a TURN or BULL entry fills at the next open.
- RegimeSignal SELL setup: the protective exit (or guard full exit).
- RegimeSignal TRIM setup: the guard cuts exposure toward 50%.
- RegimeSignal RESTORE setup: a sustained recovery restores full size.
Version
RegimeSignal H 1.1.3 (companion simulated book).
Nightly refresh and version
This indicator is not run in the nightly site refresh yet. Versions described here: RegimeSignal H 1.1.3 (companion simulated book).
Research only, not investment advice. This page describes how the indicator works in plain English; it does not publish the source. All results shown are hypothetical.