Crypto · Indicator journal · 46 readings since 2026-02-19

BTC Structure Tracker

Bullish 8H · Bearish Daily & Weekly · Bearish confluence 71% · Chop / range

8HBULLISHDailyBEARISHWeeklyBEARISH
$68,089.00Reading 2026-03-03Manual snapshot, not live

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Signals

Signal8HDailyWeekly
StructureBULLBEARBEAR
Seismic7.9BEAR5.7BEAR10.4BEAR
OI sentimentSHRTS ENTROI -0.45%SHRTS ENTROI -0.45%SHRTS ENTROI -0.45%
RealPnL Z0.39NEUTRAL0.29NEUTRAL-0.58NEUTRAL
OnChain vs signal—not exported—not exported—not exported
Early warningNoneNoneNone
Show all indicators
Signal8HDailyWeekly
RSI / ADX54 / 1346 / 4530 / 35
+DI / −DI22.5 / 22.414.6 / 23.59.2 / 22.9
Lev Press222222
RSI div0%0%22%BEAR
OI div30%FLUSH RSK30%FLUSH RSK30%FLUSH RSK
Vol div0%0%0%
Funding proxy3%NEUTRAL2%NEUTRAL0%N/A
Basis-0%FLAT0.01%FLAT0.06%USDT BEAR
ATR comp104%96.3%145.5%
ADX turn23%COILING0%TRENDING0%TRENDING
Bias / Layers0 / 20 / 2-6.4 / 2
GravityWell———
Thrust / Gravity— / —— / —— / —
Reporter confluence———
Last high / low$69,988.83$63,030.00$70,983.00$62,510.28$97,924.49$80,600.00
Invalidation$61,769.40risk 9.28%——
Potential HH / HL— / —— / —— / —
Buildup / Buy zoneLOWLOWLOW
ROC / dist. from HH———
EMA 1h / EMA D67,987 / 69,12667,967 / 69,12867,966 / 69,127
OI bars since———

Rows below “Early warning”-style curated rows include every other field exported for this reading, unedited.

Journal note · HOLD

Read the note for 2026-03-03

8H flipped BULLISH — first structural upgrade since tracking began. HH 69988 broke above prior 68698 LH, HL confirmed at 63030. But this is the only bullish timeframe — daily still BEARISH (ADX 45, strong trend, -DI dominant 23.5 vs 14.6), weekly BEARISH (RSI 30, -DI 22.9 vs 9.2). OI Score collapsed from -10.84 to -0.45 NORM — the deleveraging is mostly complete. All timeframes show SHRTS ENTR — new shorts entering, which is the fuel for a squeeze if 8H structure holds. 30% OI Div FLUSH RSK across all three timeframes — consistent flush risk signal. 8H ADX at 13 (dead low) with DI perfectly balanced (22.5 vs 22.4) — no directional conviction, just structure reclassification. Daily ADX still 45 TRENDING bearish. Key levels: 8H invalidation at 61769 (9.28% risk), needs to hold 63030 HL. Above 70096 HH = daily structure upgrade. Weekly still deeply bearish, RSI 30, RealPnL -0.58 recovering from -1.08. CONTEXT: 5-day gap since last reading (Feb 26 → Mar 3). During gap, price bottomed at ~62510 (LL on daily), bounced hard to 69988 (new 8H HH), now consolidating ~68K. The bounce created the 8H BULLISH flip but daily structure absorbed the move as just a lower high within its bearish sequence — 70983 daily HH still intact overhead. Weekly candle currently +3.5% with long lower wick from 65259 low, but remains below both EMAs (67966 vs 69127). Macro: Trump tariff headlines driving crypto volatility. BTC.D rising (59.2%) as alts bleed harder — classic risk-off rotation. Portfolio context: Pulse loaded 8/10 buys on BTC with 97.9% win rate, PENDLE showing strongest Seismic setup (40.7 ELEVATED, funding 100% SHRTS PAY, vol div 100% EXHAUST). AAVE freshly flipped BLUE on screener — nearest new buy candidate. ATR Zone Revert SUI-1H preset created and saved this session. GEOPOLITICAL: US-Israel launched strikes on Iran on Sat Mar 1, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. BTC whipsawed violently — dropped to ~63K on strike news, bounced to 68196 on Khamenei death confirmation, reversed to 65300 by Sun PM, then rallied Mon to 70K before fading to 66500 Tue as DXY surged 0.5% (highest since Jan 19). Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Brent crude +6.4%. Oil spike feeds inflation fears → delays Fed rate cuts → tightens liquidity for risk assets. Iranian drones hit US embassy in Riyadh escalating further. Ceasefire odds on Polymarket at 46% by end of March. BTC acting as weekend settlement layer not safe haven — correlated with gold (hit 410 then fell to 260) then decoupled as DXY took over. ZEC privacy narrative strengthened (+500% YoY per CryptoPotato). The 8H BULLISH flip occurred during the Mon war bounce — need to determine if structural or just geopolitical short squeeze that fades.

Key levels

Weekly swing high$97,924.49+43.8%
Weekly pivot low$80,600.00+18.4%
Daily swing high$70,983.00+4.3%
8H swing high$69,988.83+2.8%
Price at reading$68,089.00snapshot
8H pivot low$63,030.00-7.4%
Daily pivot low$62,510.28-8.2%
8H invalidation$61,769.40-9.3%

Dots are spaced to scale; labels are nudged apart where levels are close. Percentages are distance from the price at this reading.

History charts

Agreement of the weighted checks (structure, DI, Seismic bias, OI div, layers). Higher = more of them point the same way; above 60% it is labelled bullish/bearish.

0255075100no readings · 127 days60%Mar 2026AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov2026-02-19 · Tracker confluence: 542026-02-20 · Tracker confluence: 482026-02-24 · Tracker confluence: 432026-02-25 · Tracker confluence: 622026-02-26 · Tracker confluence: 672026-03-03 · Tracker confluence: 712026-03-04 · Tracker confluence: 582026-03-06 · Tracker confluence: 712026-03-10 · Tracker confluence: 482026-03-10-eve · Tracker confluence: 382026-03-14 · Tracker confluence: 432026-03-15 · Tracker confluence: 482026-03-17 · Tracker confluence: 462026-03-18 · Tracker confluence: 712026-03-19 · Tracker confluence: 672026-03-20 · Tracker confluence: 672026-03-25 · Tracker confluence: 392026-03-26 · Tracker confluence: 332026-03-29 · Tracker confluence: 502026-03-31 · Tracker confluence: 502026-04-03 · Tracker confluence: 622026-04-05 · Tracker confluence: 482026-04-09 · Tracker confluence: 452026-04-10 · Tracker confluence: 672026-04-12 · Tracker confluence: 522026-04-16 · Tracker confluence: 622026-04-17 · Tracker confluence: 672026-04-20 · Tracker confluence: 582026-04-22 · Tracker confluence: 582026-04-23 · Tracker confluence: 582026-04-24 · Tracker confluence: 552026-04-26 · Tracker confluence: 552026-04-27 · Tracker confluence: 652026-05-02 · Tracker confluence: 482026-05-03 · Tracker confluence: 482026-05-04 · Tracker confluence: 462026-05-05 · Tracker confluence: 462026-05-07 · Tracker confluence: 352026-05-13 · Tracker confluence: 572026-05-20 · Tracker confluence: 472026-09-24 · Tracker confluence: 502026-09-26 · Tracker confluence: 382026-10-02 · Tracker confluence: 382026-10-12 · Tracker confluence: 352026-10-14 · Tracker confluence: 572026-11-01 · Tracker confluence: 52
Tracker confluenceHatched = no readings in that span; x-axis is true calendar time.
Data notes

Prices and indicators are manual snapshots from uploaded chart screenshots and CSV exports. They are not live and are not updated automatically.

Glossary
SwingFlow structure
The trend state reported by the SwingFlow / Structure Reporter overlay from the sequence of swing highs and lows on that timeframe: BULLISH, BEARISH, CONTRACTING (swings narrowing) or EXPANDING (swings widening). A forming candle's state can still change before it closes.
Seismic
A momentum-energy reading from the CS Waves family. Bigger numbers mean a more energetic move; BULL/BEAR is the direction it leans. Recent exports include an alert threshold (34) above which the move counts as unusually strong.
OI sentiment
Combines the change in futures open interest with price direction: LNGS ENTR (longs entering), SHRTS ENTR (shorts entering), SHRTS COVR (shorts covering) or LNGS EXIT (longs exiting). Here, entering longs and covering shorts are shown green; entering shorts and exiting longs red.
RealPnL Z
A z-score of realized profit and loss: how unusual profit-taking or loss-taking is compared with its own history. Labels: DISCOUNT (low), NEUTRAL, PREMIUM (high). The original tracker shaded ≤ −0.5 as discount and ≥ +1.5 as premium.
OnChain vs signal
The standalone BTCOnChain composite blends scored on-chain components (SOPR, active addresses, new addresses, fees, hash rate, sends) and is compared with its own signal line. Composite above signal is shown green, below red.
Early warning
A flag the Structure Reporter raises when it sees a possible structure change before it is confirmed (for example “BULL?”). Blank means no warning.
Tracker confluence
This page's own score, using the original tracker's formula: across 8H/Daily/Weekly it weighs structure (3), +DI vs −DI (1), Seismic bias (2), OI divergence (1) and layers (1), then takes the larger of the bullish and bearish shares. Only above 60% is it called bullish or bearish; otherwise neutral.
Regime
From the last five readings' daily structure: 3+ bullish = Bull trend, 3+ bearish = Bear trend, 3+ contracting/expanding = Chop / range, otherwise transitioning.
GravityWell
A Reporter overlay that measures where price sits relative to an equilibrium (“well”), with thrust and gravity components. Exported well score / orbit values are scores, not percent distances.
Lev Press
Leverage pressure: how stretched derivatives leverage looks, with labels such as ELEVATED, HIGH or EXTREME. Very high readings across timeframes mean crowded positioning.
RSI / ADX / DI
Classic momentum (RSI), trend strength (ADX) and direction (+DI vs −DI). −DI above +DI leans bearish, +DI above −DI bullish.
OI div / Vol div / RSI div
Divergence scores (0–100%) between price and open interest, volume or RSI. 50%+ is treated as significant; labels show the direction (e.g. BULL, EXHAUST UP).
Funding / Basis
Funding-rate proxy and futures basis (premium of futures over spot) as exported by the Reporter, with its labels such as SHRTS PAY or USDT^ BEAR.
Bias / Layers
The Reporter's directional bias score and how many of its layers agree (0–5+). The tracker formula treats 5+ layers as supportive and 1–2 as weak.
Reporter confluence
The Structure Reporter's own signed confluence percentage. It is separate from this page's Tracker confluence.
Reference levels
Last swing high (HH) and pivot low (HL) exported by SwingFlow on each timeframe. They are reference levels the indicator tracks, not stop or target recommendations.

Indicators are from the TheurgyLabs CryptoStatus overlay / CS Waves family. Descriptions are general and based on the exported field names and labels.

Research journal only, not investment advice. Readings are manual snapshots and are not updated live.