BTC Structure Tracker

Rows below “Early warning”-style curated rows include every other field exported for this reading, unedited.

Reading #33. BTC $77,158 — down -2.8% from Reading #32 ($79,360 on Apr 26). Price pulled back sharply from the 8H HH retest at $79,424. The rejection at the highs confirmed the concerns raised in R#32 about daily leverage (36 EXTREME) and volume exhaustion (100% EXHAUST). KEY CHANGES FROM R#32: 8H RSI DIV SURGED 29%→67% BEAR — the most significant deterioration this session. Price is now well below the prior HH while RSI divergence has more than doubled. The retest failed and momentum divergence expanded sharply. This is the highest 8H RSI Div since R#26 (75%). OI SENTIMENT FLIPPED BEARISH — all three TFs now show SHRTS ENTR (shorts entering). R#32 had SHRTS COVR on 8H and LNGS ENTR on Daily/Weekly — the shift to unanimous SHRTS ENTR means new short positions are being opened across all timeframes. This is a meaningful sentiment deterioration from the constructive profile in R#32. 8H GRAVITYWELL FLIPPED POSITIVE — Orbit went from -7.5 (pulling down in R#32) to +5.7 (pulling up). GravLn flipped from -10.9 to +5.7. Price is now BELOW EQ. This is constructive — gravity is pulling price UP from below equilibrium, supporting a mean-reversion bounce. DAILY EARLY WARNING ⚡ BULL? — despite daily structure being BEARISH, price is above the daily Last HH ($71,999), triggering the early warning. Potential HL at $64,934.5 with potential invalidation at $63,635. This is bullish context despite the bearish label — price has broken above the daily swing high but the structure hasn't formally shifted yet. DAILY GRAVITYWELL DEEPLY NEGATIVE — Orbit -6.5, GravLn -12.5, Signal -15.2, Gravity 43, Decay 7. The daily is experiencing strong gravitational pull and orbital decay. Price is ABOVE EQ on daily but the gravity field is pulling hard. 8H ATR COMP DROPPED to 6% at 77% — volatility still below average but less compressed than the 72.3% in R#32. DAILY ATR COMP similar at 22%, 68.8%. LEVERAGE NORMALIZED — Daily Lev Press dropped from 36 EXTREME to 23 NORMAL. Weekly from 35 EXTREME to 21 NORMAL. The leverage buildup that concerned us in R#32 has been flushed. 8H steady at 22 LOW. ONCHAIN DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY — Daily composite -11.1 (was +5.7 in R#32). Weekly WEAK at -41. Active addresses plunged to 549K (12th percentile, was 665K 97th percentile). New addresses similarly weak at 253K (12th percentile). SOPR flipped positive to 1.0003 (from 0.9838) — holders are now slightly profitable on aggregate, which could mean sell pressure. WEEKLY BEARISH MAINTAINED — RSI 46 (down from 48), ADX 32, -DI still leading at 22.3 vs +DI 17. Weekly Seismic 0 NEUTRAL, 0 layers. ATR Comp 121.5% — weekly volatility above average. REGIME: POST-REJECTION DIGESTION. The $79,424 HH retest failed as predicted by the R#32 leverage and volume exhaustion warnings. The pullback flushed the excessive leverage (EXTREME→NORMAL) and new shorts are entering (squeeze fuel if 8H structure holds). The 8H GravityWell flipping positive from below equilibrium is constructive for a bounce. But the 67% RSI Div and SHRTS ENTR sentiment across all TFs suggest caution. The daily ⚡ BULL? early warning is the silver lining — price is structurally above the daily swing high even if the formal structure hasn't confirmed. KEY WATCHES: (1) 8H $73,700 HL must hold — break below invalidates 8H BULLISH structure, (2) 8H RSI Div at 67% — needs to contract for any sustainable bounce, (3) Daily ⚡ BULL? — needs 8H price to base and build a higher low for daily structure to formally shift, (4) SHRTS ENTR across all TFs — squeeze fuel accumulating if 8H structure holds, (5) OnChain weakness (Active addr 12th percentile) — network activity has collapsed, not supportive of a sustained rally.